Football is a week to week league. Teams get over inflated and deflated after every single game. The truth is, in the NFL teams are closer in talent than most think. In college, it’s similar with the top teams and bowl type teams.
When investing in an underdog, I will only take a team that has a chance to win. This brings me money in the long run. I can take a team +17 because I can see how that team can win. I do the research and I might think this dog can score. That will keep it close and a turnover could win it. But it will be a 4 quarter game.
Now a real profit maker is finding a team I like that’s an underdog of 1-2.5 points. I invest in the moneyline and get + money. Why should I lay the juice at -110 when I can get +110 to +120. Football rarely ends in a 1 or 2 point game. Truthfully you think the underdog will win. So just take that + money and make your profit rise.
I do not believe in buying points. If you like a game and buy off a half point, well how much do you really like that game. If you must buy points at least buy to win. Don`t be a clueless wonder and buy a half point from 7.5 to 7 so you can tie (not win money). At least if you buy from 7 down to 6.5, you are going to win with a 7 point win. Be smart.