Football Totals

Like any investment, football totals do not have a simple system that you can just blindly take. There are edges out there.

When you invest at a good book, like Bookmaker, you’ll see that football lines come out no later than Monday. When you do research there is one good rule to follow. If you like an over, invest early in the week. If you like the under, wait and invest late in the week.

If betting an over, you MUST count on points from both teams. This might sound obvious, but there are people that will say, “Well I know this team will score 42 so I only need 7 from the other.” That type of thinking will lose in the long run. In college I like the over in those big point spreads, where the total is 75-80. People try to convince themselves on the under because they can be brainwashed into thinking too many people take overs. Truth is every game is different. In this particular case the favorite is a team that will go to score for 4 quarters and not let up. Also this gives more opportunities for the underdog to score. 20 points from the dog is probable because of the number of possessions alone.

A pitfall I see is people looking at the weather and decide going under is the way to go. The only thing that matters is WIND. With rain or snow the offense has the advantage as they know where they are going. Wind can take away the pass so that’s the only factor that can drive points down. So, never decide under because of weather alone.

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