Sam Houston -2 vs. Western Kentucky, Total 55
A showdown in Conference USA (CUSA) takes place tonight when Sam Houston (5-1, 2-0) hosts Western Kentucky (4-2, 2-0). These are two of the top four teams in CUSA. Sam Houston is led by an outstanding coach, K.C. Keeler, who has been with the team for 10 years and has built a winning culture. Sam Houston was a playoff regular at the FCS level, culminating in a national title during the COVID year, where they defeated two powerhouse teams, James Madison and North Dakota State.
Sam Houston joined the FBS last year and got off to a rough 0-8 start but ended the season by winning three of their last four (with one loss to this Hilltopper team, 28-23). K.C. Keeler has led the Bearkats to an 8-2 record in their last 10 games. This Bearkat team leans heavily on the run, with 286 rushing attempts compared to 150 passing attempts, averaging a balanced 228 rushing yards and 172 passing yards per game. Their best win came in a 40-39 victory over Texas State. Sam Houston is a solid team that controls the game by running the ball. While their schedule hasn’t been the toughest, they will surely be tested by Western Kentucky’s passing game, which averages 279 yards per game.
On the surface, it appears that Western Kentucky has had the tougher schedule, but let’s look deeper. I throw out their games against Alabama and FCS Eastern Kentucky. When you focus on the other four, you see weak opponents like MTSU and UTEP. Western Kentucky’s 5-point win over Toledo loses its luster when you consider Toledo’s 15-point loss to Buffalo. Giving credit for playing a Power 5 team isn’t significant here. Western Kentucky also choked away a 20-7 lead at Boston College, which was coming off a game against an ACC opponent and had another one on deck. It’s important to note that Boston College was also playing with their backup quarterback.
I have a slight lean toward the team that can run the ball more effectively. Sam Houston has transitioned well to the FBS level and knows exactly who they are. They’re favored for a reason. I see a close game where the Bearkat offense will keep Western Kentucky’s high-flying passing game on the sidelines. In the slightest of leans, I’m going with Sam Houston State to get the job done tonight and become a major threat to win CUSA.