NLCS Game #3: L.A. Dodgers -110, Mets +100, Total 7.5
As I break down this game between the Mets and Dodgers, the first thing that stands out is the low total of 7.5. Many people still believe intense MLB playoff action tends to result in more unders. However, this postseason, the Mets are 7-2 to the over, while the Dodgers are 6-1.
Now, looking at the starting pitchers, this total would likely be 8.5 or 9 if it were a regular-season matchup. The Dodgers are starting Walker Buehler, who has struggled all year with a season-long 5.38 ERA, and an even worse 6.53 ERA on the road. Due to injuries, Buehler was forced to start Game 3 against the Padres, where he was rocked for 6 earned runs and 7 hits over 5 innings.
Meanwhile, for the Mets, we have Luis Severino, who has pitched 12 innings this postseason, allowing 14 hits and 7 runs. Both of his starts went 6 innings, and he allowed 3 earned runs in each game.
These two offenses have lit up the scoreboard when facing this type of pitching profile. I expect runs to come in bunches, especially early. The bullpens could get involved early as well, but with the total set at 7.5 for the full game, the over is where we find our value