10/17 ALCS Game #3: NY Yankees -115 vs. Cleveland Indians +105, Total 7
The Yankees look to take a commanding 3-0 lead in this series as they visit Cleveland this afternoon. The key difference in this series so far has been Cleveland’s early mistakes. In Game 1, the Indians had five wild pitches, with two of them allowing runs to score. In Game 2, Cleveland helped the Yankees by dropping a pop-up that allowed another run. While the Yankees had some baserunning issues, Cleveland’s miscues were far more costly.
The Yankees will send Clarke Schmidt to the mound, hoping for five solid innings of work. In his one postseason start, Schmidt allowed two runs over 4.2 innings. He has excelled on the road this year, posting a 1.39 ERA through 45 innings of work. If Schmidt can deliver five strong innings, the Yankees will feel comfortable finishing the game with four innings from their bullpen. Aaron Judge broke through with a two-run homer last game, and despite his average, he has been seeing the ball well and hitting it hard since the series in Kansas City, though with little to show for it. The Yankees are 2-for-17 with runners in scoring position and are still up 2-0 in this series.
On Cleveland’s side, their bullpen is top-notch—when they don’t have a rookie throwing wild pitches. Cleveland isn’t afraid to rely on their bullpen early. They will send Matthew Boyd to the mound as an opener, making his 11th start this year. In the postseason, Boyd has faced the Tigers twice. In his first start, he allowed four hits, no earned runs, and two walks. In Game 5, he acted as a true opener, lasting two innings, striking out five, and allowing one hit and one walk. Cleveland would love to get five innings out of Boyd before turning the game over to the bullpen. The Indians are also struggling with runners in scoring position, going 1-for-11 through two games at Yankee Stadium.
Cleveland is desperate in this game, so expect an early hook for Boyd if he runs into trouble. This game feels like it will have baserunners early, but the question is whether either team can come up with a clutch hit to capitalize. Given Cleveland’s desperation and their inconsistent hitting, the under looks like a possibility. I might not bet on this game, but an under 4 for the first five innings might not be a bad play.
Slight lean: Under 4 for the first 5 innings