NLCS Game #4: LA Dodgers -132 vs. NY Mets +110, Total 7
With the Dodgers up 2-1 in the series, this game becomes almost a must-win for the Mets. We’re once again looking at a low total of 7, despite the fact that the winner has scored 7+ runs in each of the first three games of the series. This postseason, the Mets are 8-2 to the over, while the Dodgers are 7-1. All 10 of the Mets’ postseason games have featured at least one team scoring 4 or more runs. When looking at the Mets’ seven NLDS/NLCS games, six of them have gone over the total of 7, and in six of those games, one team scored at least 6 runs by themselves.
Similarly, in seven of the Dodgers’ eight postseason games, one team has managed to score at least 6 runs. Yet, the total is still set at only 7. The Dodgers will send Yamamoto to the mound, hoping for 5 quality innings. Yamamoto has had mixed results this postseason, with a 3-inning, 5-run outing and a solid 5-inning shutout against the Padres. He hasn’t faced the Mets since early in the season when they touched him for 4 runs. The Dodgers will likely give him a longer leash tonight, with their 2-1 series lead allowing them to rest their bullpen. The Dodgers’ top relievers have been solid but might not play a big role in this game.
The Mets will counter with José Quintana, who has pitched 11 scoreless innings this postseason, though he hasn’t pitched in 8 days. In his last 36.1 regular-season innings, Quintana allowed only 3 earned runs. That’s 47.1 innings with just 3 earned runs allowed, which is impressive no matter how you look at it.
The bottom line is that while Quintana has been excellent, the Mets’ bullpen has been shaky in the playoffs. The best approach in this game is to avoid the under at all costs. From a numbers perspective, the value lies with the Mets at +110, given Quintana’s strong pitching profile. The fact that the Dodgers might extend Yamamoto’s leash also gives a slight edge to the Mets at plus money. This is by no means a best bet, but there’s a lean toward NY Mets +110.