10/18 ALCS Game #4: NY Yankees -113 vs. Cleveland Indians +103, Total 7.5
We had an epic Game 3 that saw Cleveland jump back into the series, and now they look to even it up tonight. The question is: how will both teams handle the emotional rollercoaster? In baseball, momentum only goes as far as the next day’s starting pitcher. The home crowd will be in a fever pitch, and hitters on both sides are becoming more and more comfortable with the relief pitchers they are facing. The Yankees continue overusing their bullpen, most notably Luke Weaver, who has pitched in the Yankees’ last five games. Instead of picking a side in this matchup, let’s focus on the total, which is set at 7.5. These game totals in this series have consistently been priced low—too low in this case.
Neither of these starting pitchers has pitched since September. The Yankees will send Luis Gil to the mound, last seen on 9/28, while Cleveland counters with Gavin Williams, who last pitched on 9/22. The Indians’ bullpen is somewhat taxed, but thanks to mismanagement by Aaron Boone, the Yankees’ bullpen is also tired.
Indians’ starter Gavin Williams, 0-7 with a 6.55 ERA at home, takes the mound hoping that the time off has helped him. The only time he faced the Yankees, he allowed 4 hits and 4 walks in 4.1 innings, yet somehow escaped with only 3 runs allowed. Expect plenty of baserunners for the Yankees.
Luis Gil, with his 12% walk rate, takes the mound for the Yankees. He faced Cleveland on August 20, allowing 3 hits, 3 runs, and a shocking 6 walks in just 3 innings. It’s amazing that Cleveland only pushed across 3 runs. In Gil’s last two outings, he allowed 6 and 4 runs, while in the 3 outings prior to that, he allowed only 2 runs in 16 innings.
The layoff for both pitchers will be a big factor, and the tired bullpens will also play a major role. The max either pitcher can go is 5 innings. This total at 7.5 seems extremely low. At least one team will explode in this game, and don’t be surprised if both offenses light up the scoreboard.
Strong Lean to Over 7.5