10/18 NLCS Game #5: LA Dodgers -147 vs. NY Mets +126, Total 7.5
The Dodgers look to advance to the World Series this afternoon as they aim to win three in a row in New York. After another dominating win last night, the Dodgers are looking like the best team in baseball. This breakdown follows a simple “rinse and repeat” approach, especially if you’ve been riding the over trend in this series. Even José Quintana couldn’t cool down the scoring in this series.
The Dodgers have scored 7+ runs in 4 of their last 6 games, yet the total is still set at 7.5. The Dodgers are an incredible 8-1 to the over in the postseason, while the Mets are 9-2. For the Mets, 7 of their last 8 postseason games have gone over the total, with at least one team scoring 6 or more in each of those games. The Dodgers have been similar, with at least one team scoring 6+ in 8 of their 9 postseason games. This is a straightforward “rinse and repeat” over 7.5 situation.
David Peterson gets the start for the Mets. He has pitched 8.2 innings this postseason, allowing 8 hits. In this series, the Dodgers touched him for 3 runs on 4 hits in just 2.1 innings of work. While Peterson’s regular season stats look solid, his expected ERA was over 1.5 points higher than his actual ERA. With the Mets’ bullpen struggling, it’s likely that the Dodgers’ red-hot hitting continues today.
The Mets will face Jack Flaherty for the second time in this series, after he spun 7 shutout innings against them in Game 1. A second look for the Mets could give them a better chance to get to Flaherty. Prior to his start against the Mets, Flaherty had allowed 3+ runs in 4 straight starts.
In conclusion, the Mets’ pitching has little chance to stop this scorching Dodgers lineup. Flaherty likely won’t have a short leash, which increases the potential for runs in this game. While I believe the Dodgers will advance today, the better bet is for this game to go over 7.5.
Lean: Dodgers/Mets Over 7.5