10/18: BYU -9.5 vs. Oklahoma State, Total 52.5
BYU hosts Oklahoma State this Friday night in a primetime matchup that can be described as hot vs. cold. We have a 6-0 BYU team, both straight up and against the spread, facing an Oklahoma State team on a three-game losing streak. BYU, playing at home under the lights, has won 28 of their last 31 home games.
BYU has scored 34+ points in 5 of their 6 games, including every Big 12 matchup. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State’s defense has struggled against Power 5 schools with their starting QBs, allowing 38 points (WVU), 42 points (at KSU), and 31 points (ARK). Oklahoma State has been unable to control the clock due to the disappearance of RB Ollie Gordon, who is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry. OSU QB Alan Bowman has a back-foot throwing tendency and has only completed 59.3% of his passes, with a poor 12-8 TD-INT ratio. Bowman’s inconsistency could contribute to scoring for both teams, making the over a solid consideration.
BYU boasts three running backs who average 4.6 yards per carry or more. QB Jake Retzlaff has a 14-5 TD-INT ratio, and this veteran team takes care of the ball. BYU’s offense can score early and wear down Oklahoma State’s defense.
BYU is on a short week, while Oklahoma State is coming off a bye, giving the Cowboys a slight advantage in preparation. OSU handed BYU its last loss of the regular season in a 40-34 overtime game in Stillwater. However, these two teams are in very different mental places this time around. With the spread sitting at BYU -9.5, it’s a tricky number to back BYU. The line hit 10 but dropped to 8 as late as Thursday. The better value lies with the over.
As of now, the total is 52.5. While Oklahoma State has a talented offense, they only managed to score 14, 20, and 19 points during their three-game losing streak. Let’s focus on BYU’s offense against Oklahoma State’s defense. BYU holds a significant advantage here, and with Bowman’s tendency to throw interceptions, BYU could benefit from short fields. Additionally, BYU dominates the special teams matchup in this game.
Let’s go with the strong lean: BYU team total over 30.5.