10/19 Noon EDT #6 Miami -5.5 vs. Louisville, Total 60.5
Can #6 Miami go into Louisville and keep their perfect record intact? Miami enters this game after a bye week, following two narrow escapes against Virginia Tech (38-34) and a nail-biter at Cal (39-38). Louisville, on the other hand, snapped a two-game losing streak by holding off Virginia 24-20. Miami has been fortunate to stay undefeated, while Louisville has been slightly disappointing.
The total in this game offers more value than picking a side. Both teams thrive on chunk plays, with Miami ranking #1 in the nation with 53 plays of 20+ yards, and Louisville sitting at #4 with 41 such plays. Cam Ward, with his impressive 20-5 TD-INT ratio, leads the Hurricanes and is a Heisman frontrunner. Louisville counters with Tyler Slough, who boasts a solid 14-3 TD-INT ratio. Both teams play at a fast pace, which should lead to plenty of scoring opportunities.
Miami’s defense has been shaky, allowing Virginia Tech to put up 34 points and 206 rushing yards, while Cal’s average offense threw for 297 yards and scored 38 points. Louisville’s defense has also shown vulnerability, allowing 481 yards and 31 points to SMU, with Virginia throwing for over 300 yards on them. This game will be the toughest test for Louisville’s defense, as they face Miami’s explosive offense. Similarly, Miami will get a sense of how potent Louisville’s offense is this season. Both teams excel at turning short passes into big gainers, and neither defense can afford to sit back too much, as Miami averages 5.6 yards per carry and Louisville averages 5.4.
While the total is high at 60.5, the offensive firepower on both sides points to a potential shootout. If I make a play on this game, it will be on the Over 60.5.
LEAN: Miami/Louisville Over 60.5