10/21 NFL Preview: Baltimore Ravens -3.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Total: 50
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2) host the Baltimore Ravens (4-2) in a game that promises plenty of fireworks. Don’t bother with the side—it’s the total where the value lies. Baltimore’s explosive offense has scored 39, 41, 35, and 28 points in the last four weeks. The Ravens should find plenty of success on the ground, as they average an impressive 6 yards per carry and face a Buccaneers defense that allows 4.8 yards per carry. Baltimore will also be able to exploit Tampa Bay’s mediocre secondary. In their last two games, Tampa Bay has allowed 27 and 36 points to the Saints and Falcons—teams that don’t have the firepower of the Ravens.
On the other side, Tampa Bay has exploded for 51, 30, and 33 points in their last three games. Baltimore’s pass defense is highly questionable, and Baker Mayfield, along with his talented offense, can take full advantage.
The total for this game has risen and currently sits at 50, which still feels too low. Although we’ve lost a couple of points in value, 49 and 50 are considered “dead numbers.” People often overthink these types of plays, but we see solid value in betting the Ravens/Bucs over 50.
Lean: Ravens/Bucs Over 50.