10/22 CFB Preview: Sam Houston State -5.5 vs. Florida International | Total: 46.5
It’s Vice Night at Pitbull Stadium as the FIU Panthers (2-5) host the Sam Houston Bearkats (5-2). The stadium and FIU uniforms will be Miami Vice-themed in front of an ESPNU audience—a good reason to stop by if you’re in the Miami area.
This matchup features two teams that lost their quarterbacks in the first half of last week’s games, leading both offenses to grind to a halt. FIU looks to have their QB Keyone Jenkins back this week. Without him last week, UTEP secured their first win of the season, but that wasn’t FIU’s only issue. Their leaky run defense allowed a weak UTEP offense to rush for 213 yards, which doesn’t bode well against a run-heavy Sam Houston State team that averages 219 rushing yards per game.
The Bearkats lost QB Hunter Watson during their showdown with Western Kentucky, which took away their chances of winning. However, Watson is expected to be healthy enough to start this week. Finding value in this game is challenging, but Sam Houston State has a significant coaching edge with K.C. Keeler, who built this team into an FCS powerhouse. Since transitioning to the FBS, they’ve gone 8-3 in their last 11 games after a rocky start.
The spread has dropped from Bearkats -7 to -5.5, but there’s little value in that line. The total sits at 46.5, which doesn’t offer much either. While I might ultimately pass on betting this game, I do see some value in the Sam Houston State team total over. Currently, the team total is 26.5 at -105, a number the Bearkats have cleared 5 out of 6 times with a healthy Hunter Watson. The only exception was against UCF in Week 2.
Slight Lean: Sam Houston State Team Total Over 26.5 (-105).