10/23 CFB: Liberty -26 vs. Kennesaw State
The undefeated Liberty Flames (5-0) host the winless Kennesaw State Owls (0-6) tonight in a complete mismatch. This game has a high probability of not making my card, but let’s try to extract some value from it.
Liberty might be 5-0, but their biggest win all year was by 18 points over 1-7 UTEP. The Flames narrowly escaped at home against an awful FIU (2-6) team, winning 31-24 in overtime. Liberty also struggled with a New Mexico State team (2-5), winning by just 6 points in a 30-24 decision. This Liberty team is not as powerful as past teams, which makes this 26-point spread seem outrageous. There’s a reason Liberty is only 1-4 ATS this year.
There’s a reason this Kennesaw team is such a big underdog—one could argue they are the worst team in the country, with the worst offense, and no passing game. The one time Kennesaw played a good C-USA team, Jacksonville State, they were destroyed 63-24. Although Liberty has shown they play down to their competition, there’s no money to be made betting on the absolute worst in college football.
There is very little value to scrape up in this game, as Liberty is eyeing a big game next week with Jacksonville State, a conference contender. Liberty should have their way offensively with this Kennesaw team, but their team total sits at 35.5—a number Liberty hasn’t cleared all year vs. FBS competition. Meanwhile, only one opponent has cleared this number against the Owls. If given a free play, I would take Liberty/Kennesaw State under 46.
SLIGHTEST OF LEANS: Liberty/Kennesaw State under 46