10/23 NBA Preview: Indiana Pacers -4.5 vs. Detroit Pistons | Total: 233.5
While many people are focused on the bigger NBA matchups tipping off the season Tuesday night, there’s even greater value in an under-the-radar game on Wednesday. The last time we saw the Detroit Pistons, they were finishing off a dreadful 7-34 record at home. The Pistons remain near the bottom of the league and are ripe to fade early before the spreads grow too large. Last season, the Pistons covered just 2 of their first 14 home games, and we’re looking for a repeat of that trend.
This line opened at Indiana -5.5 and has since moved to -4.5, but I wholeheartedly disagree with the shift. Indiana, which was solid last year, will be even better this season. The Pacers were 4-0 ATS against the Pistons last year, with the lowest spread being -7.5. Those four matchups resulted in Indiana victories by scores of 122-103, 129-115, 131-123, and 136-113. As you can see, the Pacers had no trouble scoring against Detroit, and I expect similar results this season.
With Indiana focused for opening night, laying the small number of 4.5 looks like a strong play.
Strong Lean: Indiana -4.5.