10/26 CFB Preview: Kansas at Kansas State
Kansas State hosts Kansas in a rivalry game between two teams on opposite sides of the spectrum. Kansas State (6-1) still has hopes of making the Big 12 Championship, while Kansas (2-5) has had a disappointing season. Kansas recently snapped their five-game losing streak by securing their first FBS win of the season. As of Monday, 10/21, the line sits at KSU -9.5. I expect this spread to increase as the week progresses. While rivalry games can be unpredictable, the value here lies in Kansas State’s ability to score points at home.
I noticed a Kansas State team total set at 32.5, and I immediately jumped on the over early in the week. In the past two years, Kansas State has gone over this total in 9 of their last 10 games at home. The only time they failed to do so was in a blowout win over Arizona, where KSU had 28 points through three quarters. In 8 of their last 10 home games, Kansas State has put up 41+ points.
Kansas, before last week, was on a five-game losing streak, all against unranked teams. In the last three games of that streak, Kansas allowed 35, 38, and 32 points. They won’t be able to stop this Kansas State offense, which has scored 31+ points in 6 of their 7 games this season. Kansas State won’t let up against their rival, and with only Houston left on deck, expect KSU to pour it on. While the spread at 9.5 seems small, the team total of 32.5 offers even more value.
Strong Lean: Kansas State Team Total Over 32.5.