10/29 CFB: Sam Houston -10 vs. Louisiana Tech, Total 45.5
Sam Houston (6-2, 3-1) still has its sights set on a C-USA title, while Louisiana Tech (3-4, 2-2) looks to make it three wins in their last four games tonight. The key for the Bearkats is their talented QB Hunter Watson being healthy. When he went down in the Western Kentucky game, their offense became nonexistent. Jake Bauer started in the 10-7 win over FIU, and you could see the big drop-off in this offense. Watson is listed as probable, but it’s important to confirm he’s playing and healthy closer to kickoff. This offense picks up with Watson under center, and in the other five games he started against non-Power 4 schools, the Bearkats scored 31+ points each time.
Louisiana Tech’s two wins against FBS opponents were over bottom-feeder MTSU and a 1-win UTEP (14-10). Evan Bullock has taken over QB duties and has a 9-0 TD-INT ratio, so he’s taking care of the ball. While LA Tech has a strong passing game, their ability to balance it with the run remains questionable. Their defense, however, is respectable against the run, allowing only 113 yards per game—an important factor against this run-heavy team.
There’s a significant difference in the running game: Sam Houston’s QB Hunter Watson has rushed for 407 yards this season despite missing 1.5 games, while Louisiana Tech’s 3 leading rushers have combined for only 375 yards.
One thing is certain: if Watson is a late scratch, the under 45.5 has great value. With Watson, I give a slight edge to Sam Houston pulling away in a game we won’t get to the window with.
SLIGHTEST OF LEANS: Sam Houston -10
