10/29 CFB: Texas State -4.5 vs. Louisiana, Total 59.5
In the Sun Belt, the only conference with both East and West divisions, we have a crucial matchup as Louisiana (6-1, 3-0) travels to San Marcos to take on Texas State (4-3, 2-1). Texas State is coming off a 10-point loss to East Division leader Old Dominion 10 days ago. Meanwhile, the Ragin’ Cajuns come in on a 4-game winning streak, three of which were on the road. Louisiana’s last game was also 10 days ago—a 10-point win over Coastal Carolina. The only blemish on Louisiana’s schedule is an 8-point loss to American Conference power Tulane.
Sun Belt Player of the Year QB Jordan McCloud leads an explosive Texas State offense that had scored 31+ points in every game until last week when ODU held them to 14. Despite last week, offense remains this team’s strength, averaging 275 yards passing and 185 rushing per game. The defense can be leaky at times, as evidenced by Sam Houston putting up 40 points and Arizona State scoring 31 on this field.
Ben Wooldridge leads a Louisiana offense that averages 264 passing yards and 179 rushing yards per game, with a 15-4 TD to INT ratio. Louisiana should be able to put up points on this soft defense. Their defense also seems slightly better, especially with a pass defense allowing only 166 yards per game.
The total has ticked up to 59.5, suggesting points will be coming. In what shapes up to be a close game, taking the better defense with points is the preferred approach.
LEAN: Louisiana +4.5
