10/29 CFB: Florida International -9 vs. New Mexico State, Total 43
We have two bottom feeders in C-USA tonight as New Mexico State (2-5, 1-3) travels to Pittbull Stadium to take on Florida International (2-6, 1-3). What justifies FIU being a 9-point favorite over anyone? This is a team that gave UTEP its only win of the season as a 7-point favorite, losing outright. Their QB, Keyone Jenkins, was serviceable until he got injured a few weeks back. Jenkins started last week but was pulled after a 1-for-9 start at Sam Houston State. He’s just not the same since the injury, and there’s a significant drop-off in talent behind him. This FIU team has lost 3 in a row and 5 of their last 6.
Before we jump all over New Mexico State, we need to remember that NMSU snapped a 5-game losing streak by beating Louisiana Tech 33-30 in double OT. Away from home in three games, NMSU has been outscored 133-24, but Jacksonville State, Sam Houston State, and Fresno State are far superior to FIU—especially when those teams are healthy. The mental makeup of these teams is where we try to extract value in this game.
FIU’s QB Keyone Jenkins will start, but he’s nowhere close to his form from earlier in the season. NMSU should be able to get a bit of a running game going. Betting on bad teams is not a formula for consistent wins, but if there’s any value in this game, it’s with the Aggies +9.
SLIGHTEST OF LEANS: New Mexico State +9