10/29 Game #4: Yankees -142 vs. Dodgers +130, Total 8.5
The Dodgers are looking to sweep the Yankees out of the World Series in the Bronx. You’re getting a +130 price with the Dodgers and +125 for the first 5 innings with LA. In an elimination game, the concept of “value” changes—any plus money on the Dodgers in a World Series situation is valuable.
Luis Gil, known for his tendency to be wild, faces a Dodgers team that will rely on a bullpen game tonight. Lost in the story is the fact that Ohtani isn’t 100%, but does that even matter anymore? The Yankees should be able to put up runs tonight, but the simple fact is they struggle to hit with runners in scoring position. The Yankees are 4-20 in the World Series in these situations, and this has been a recurring theme throughout the playoffs.
While I lean toward the over, I can’t commit due to the Yankees’ ice-cold lineup. Full disclosure: I will not bet on this game as there are no clear advantages, but if given a free play, I’d take the plus money with the Dodgers.