10/30 CFB Preview: Western Kentucky -24 vs. Kennesaw State, Total 49.5
The top team in C-USA, the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, host a Kennesaw State team fresh off a shocking upset of formerly unbeaten Liberty. Can Kennesaw follow up that performance with another solid effort? Not very likely. Kennesaw State became the third subpar team to push Liberty to the wire, ultimately breaking through with a 27-24 win. Previously, FIU pushed Liberty to overtime, while NMSU also played Liberty tough in a 6-point game. Kennesaw’s QB, Davis Bryson, was 16-20 for 189 yards last week, but even after that performance, he’s completed only 55% of his passes with a 3-6 TD-INT ratio. Kennesaw still averages under 4 yards per carry, managing just 132 yards on 42 carries last week. This is a weak offense that won’t be able to run the ball 42 times against Western Kentucky. Just two weeks ago, Kennesaw managed a measly 5 points in their last road game against MTSU—a team with a very poor defense.
The Hilltoppers have won 5 of their last 6 games, with their only loss being a 21-20 defeat to Boston College. Since their opening blowout loss to Alabama, the Hilltoppers have been significantly undervalued, going 6-0 ATS. This team has scored 31, 44, and 49 points in their C-USA games, and in their five games against non-Power 4 schools, Western Kentucky has scored at least 26 points each time. This Kennesaw State defense will struggle to contain such a powerful offense.
There are two solid options in this matchup: the Western Kentucky team total over 36.5 is appealing, but a game score of 31-0 or 34-7 is also possible. As much as it seems likely the Hilltoppers will hit the 40s, the better play is Western Kentucky -24. The lack of a passing threat from Kennesaw makes a backdoor cover unlikely. Kennesaw will likely struggle all night, giving Western Kentucky short fields and many opportunities. Since Kennesaw State will barely make a dent on the scoreboard, the lean is Western Kentucky -24.
STRONG LEAN: Western Kentucky -24