11/15 CFB Preview: BYU -2.5, Kansas, Total 56.5
Kansas (3-6, 2-4) heads to Provo to take on undefeated BYU (6-0, 9-0) in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The oddsmakers have set BYU as only a 2.5-point favorite, a line that has raised eyebrows considering the disparity in records. This spread implies that Kansas might actually be the better team, but digging deeper, the numbers and context tell a different story.
BYU comes into this game riding high after a dramatic 22-21 victory in Utah. The Cougars have consistently demonstrated grit and resilience this season, winning multiple close games. That ability to close out tight games is the definition of a good team. On the other hand, Kansas has consistently found itself on the losing side of close games, a trend some attribute to bad luck or random variance. However, I challenge that notion. Teams that consistently lose close games often do so because of flaws, not luck.
Kansas’s three wins this season, two of which have come in the last three weeks at Arrowhead, include victories over opponents like Iowa State. While beating the Cyclones was a solid win on paper, Iowa State has been widely regarded as overrated. Kansas has struggled to find consistency, and their record reflects it. Despite this, some fans and analysts are quick to declare that Kansas is “back.” The reality, though, is that this team still only 3-6.
The core handicap in this matchup is simple: BYU is the better team. While BYU may not rank among the nation’s elite, they are a disciplined, well-coached group that excels in critical moments. A night game in Provo amplifies their strengths, as this home-field environment is one of the most intimidating in college football. BYU has won 21 of their last 22 night games, a testament to their dominance under the lights.
Kansas, by contrast, has struggled to play clean football. Mistakes, turnovers, and penalties have plagued their season, and they’re now facing a team that thrives on capitalizing on such errors. BYU’s +10 turnover margin speaks volumes about their ability to take advantage of opponents’ miscues. Expect Kansas’s issues to resurface in this hostile environment, leading to opportunities for the Cougars to control the game and pull away late.
Critics may continue to label BYU as “lucky” when they win this game ,but we will cash in on the undervalued Cougars. Take BYU -2.5 with confidence, and enjoy watching this well-rounded team prove the doubters wrong yet again.
Strong Lean: BYU -2.5