11/15 CFB Preview: Washington -4 vs. UCLA (Total 47)
In a matchup that brings a bit of Big Ten flavor to the west coast, UCLA heads to Washington as a 4-point underdog. The game features a Washington team that has been dominant at home, winning all five of their contests on their own turf. On the other side, UCLA comes into the game riding a three-game winning streak, with two of those victories coming on the road. This game is shaping up to be a defensive battle, where both teams will rely on their defensive units to control the tempo and limit scoring opportunities.
UCLA’s defense has improved as the season has gone along. The Bruins had a tough early stretch of games against top-tier teams such as Indiana, LSU, Oregon, and Penn State, which led to a 1-5 start. However, since that rough patch, UCLA’s defense has settled in and started playing at a higher level. Their ability to keep games close has been one of the keys to their recent success. Quarterback Ethan Garbers has also become a steadying presence for the offense, providing consistency and leadership. In fact, five of UCLA’s last six games have resulted in total scores of 47 points or fewer, and the expectation is that this game will follow a similar trend.
On the other hand, Washington enters this game off a blowout loss to Penn State, marking their third loss in their last four games. Despite this recent slide, the Huskies have been nearly unbeatable at home, boasting a perfect 5-0 record in front of their home crowd. Washington’s offense, which has struggled in some recent games, will look to get back on track, but they will face a tough test against UCLA’s defense. The Huskies’ offense has been inconsistent at times, but their home-field advantage has allowed them to remain competitive throughout the season. Still, with both teams having strong defensive units, points will be at a premium.
When looking at the numbers, Washington has seen eight of their 10 games stay at or under 47 total points, with another game hitting 48 points. This trend aligns well with the expectation that this will be a low-scoring affair, with both teams focusing on defense and limiting big plays. Washington will likely look to control the ball and shorten the game, while UCLA will do the same, keeping the game at a slow pace and avoiding risky plays. The Huskies’ home-field advantage might give them a slight edge, but with both teams playing strong defense, it’s unlikely that we’ll see many explosive plays.
The lack of explosive plays means that long, sustained drives will be key to putting points on the board. Both teams will need to be efficient in the red zone, and every scoring opportunity will be crucial. Given the defensive nature of both teams, this game has the feel of a grind-it-out contest, with neither team likely to run away with it offensively.
Ultimately, this game is expected to stay under the total of 47 points. With both teams relying heavily on defense and controlling the clock, scoring will be limited. The best bet here is to lean towards the UCLA/Washington Under 47.
LEAN: UCLA/Washington Under 47