11/18 NBA Preview: Milwaukee -3.5 vs. Houston | Total: 224
The Houston Rockets travel to Milwaukee for the second game of a back-to-back, but they’re far from fatigued. While back-to-back games usually spell trouble for teams, the Rockets defy that trend. None of their starters played over 30 minutes in last night’s convincing 42-point blowout of the Chicago Bulls, allowing them to stay fresh for this matchup. Houston is on fire, riding a five-game winning streak and having won seven of their last eight contests. They’ve been efficient, disciplined, and surprisingly dominant, making a strong case that they’re currently the better team compared to the Milwaukee Bucks.
On the flip side, Milwaukee has struggled to live up to their preseason hype. They’re 3-3 in their last six games, with those victories coming against relatively weak competition. The Bucks have yet to find their groove under head coach Doc Rivers. Rivers, who took over last year, finished with a lackluster 17-19 record and has started this season at 4-9. The coaching has been questionable, and the team’s performances have reflected a lack of identity or consistent effort.
The Bucks enter this game as 3.5-point favorites, but the betting trends tell a different story. Milwaukee is 2-6 against the spread (ATS) as favorites this season, with five outright losses. They’ve been one of the most overvalued teams in the league, struggling to justify the respect they’re getting from oddsmakers. While Giannis continues to play at a superstar level, his supporting cast has not been as reliable. Damian Lillard has had flashes of brilliance but hasn’t fully meshed with the team, and their defense has been far from elite.
In contrast, Houston has been thriving. This is a team that has exceeded expectations, blending youth and veteran leadership to create a winning formula. Head coach Ime Udoka has instilled a culture of accountability and focus, which has shown in their disciplined play.
Offensively, the Rockets are clicking, with excellent ball movement and improved shot selection. Defensively, they’ve been relentless, ranking among the league’s best in several key metrics. The team’s balance and energy make them a tough matchup, even for elite opponents.
We see a game here where the wrong team is favored
LEAN HOUSTON+3.5