11/18 NFL: Houston -7, Dallas Total 41
The Dallas Cowboys (3-6) enter this matchup against the Houston Texans (6-4) with a four-game losing streak weighing heavily on their season. With Cooper Rush stepping in at quarterback for the injured Dak Prescott, the situation in Dallas is becoming dire. Head coach Mike McCarthy finds himself on the hot seat, as questions about effort, strategy, and execution dominate headlines. Even as the Cowboys’ defense regains some health, their performances on the field continue to leave much to be desired, with opponents scoring in bunches.
During their current losing streak, Dallas has allowed an alarming number of points: 34, 27, 30, and 47, respectively. The situation is even worse when focusing on their home games, where they’ve given up 34, 47, 28, and 44 points. These defensive lapses raise serious doubts about their ability to sustain drives and remain competitive, especially with Cooper Rush leading an offense that struggles to find consistency. Dallas appears to be spiraling, and confidence in their ability to turn things around is fading.
On the other side of the ball, the Houston Texans have faced their own challenges, losing three of their last four games. In their most recent outing, they suffered a crushing loss at home to the Detroit Lions, who erased a 16-point deficit with a dominant second-half performance. While Houston’s offense has struggled with inconsistency, the return of lead receiver Nico Collins will provide a much-needed boost. Collins’ presence is likely to open up the passing game and create opportunities for the Texans to exploit Dallas’ vulnerable defense.
Despite their struggles, the Texans have shown they can dominate in the right circumstances. Their lone win by more than seven points this season came in a 20-point blowout against the New England Patriots. However, asking Houston to win convincingly in this matchup feels risky. Both teams have glaring weaknesses, and the Texans’ recent form doesn’t inspire complete confidence. While the betting line favors Houston by seven, backing them to cover that spread might be a tall order against any opponent, even one as beleaguered as Dallas.
As for the total, reaching 41 points requires both teams to contribute, and Dallas’ offense remains an unpredictable factor. Cooper Rush’s ability to lead sustained drives is questionable, and the Cowboys’ lack of rhythm could stifle scoring opportunities. That said, there is value in targeting Houston’s team total. Currently set at 24.5 points, this number looks achievable given Dallas’ defensive collapse in recent games. In fact, every Cowboys home game this season has seen their opponent exceed this mark. With Houston’s offense potentially revitalized by Collins’ return and Dallas’ continued defensive struggles, the Texans’ team total over 24.5 could be the smartest play.
Prediction: Houston’s offense should capitalize on Dallas’ weaknesses, but expecting a blowout remains risky. The Texans’ team total offers a more measured approach, banking on their ability to exploit a Cowboys defense in freefall.
SLIGHTEST OF LEANS: Houston Team Total Over 24.5