11/26 CFB Preview: Toledo -8 vs. Akron (Total: 49)
This matchup is more of a cautionary tale than a clear betting opportunity. The dynamics surrounding this game overshadow any in-depth breakdown of the on-field matchups. Akron enters this contest on a high note, having secured a win over Kent State. Despite their 3-8 record, the Zips have been relatively competitive this season. With this being their final game, they are motivated and expected to put forth maximum effort.
On the flip side, Toledo’s situation raises questions. The Rockets are already bowl-eligible but saw their conference title hopes crumble last week in a loss to Ohio. Where ill the motivation come frrom for the Rockets. Playing in cold conditions on a November night in Akron is not optimal.
Looking at Akron’s performance in their three home games against FBS opponents this year provides insight. The Zips managed an outright win against Eastern Michigan, a team with a better record. They also kept things competitive against stronger MAC teams, staying within seven points of conference leader Bowling Green and losing by 11 to Buffalo. These results suggest Akron is capable of hanging around against quality opponents, especially at home.
While I generally avoid betting on teams with poor records, Akron’s ability to stay competitive in these situations makes them a consideration here. If I were to get involved in this game, I’d lean toward taking Akron +8.
That said, this game will not make my official betting card. While there’s a slight lean toward Akron, the uncertainty surrounding Toledo’s motivation makes this a tricky spot. The Zips could cover, but it’s not a play I’d recommend with full confidence.