11/28 NFL Preview: Detroit -10 vs. Chicago, Total 48.5
We have a Thanksgiving matchup featuring the Detroit Lions, arguably the best team in the NFL, taking on a Chicago Bears squad currently enduring a five-game skid. The Lions boast the most explosive offense in the league, complemented by a highly effective running game. Detroit has excelled on the road but has been particularly dominant at home. In their last three home games, played since September 30, the Lions have scored an impressive 52, 52, and 42 points, respectively. This season, they have secured six victories by double digits.
In contrast, the Bears have struggled mightily. During their current losing streak, they’ve suffered two losses by 16+. Last week, the Minnesota Vikings consistently reached the Bears’ red zone but left numerous points on the field. Despite what the raw stats may suggest, the Chicago defense appears to be unraveling.
This is a divisional matchup, and while some might use statistics to argue that the Bears can stay within 10 points or that this game will go under the total of 48.5, Detroit has significant advantages on both sides of the ball.
Coach Dan Campbell always has his Lions prepared for big games, especially in standalone, nationally televised spots like this. Detroit’s coaching staff has cultivated a culture of focus and consistency, preventing letdowns. While the offense gets most of the attention, the Lions’ defense deserves recognition for its recent performances. Over the past five games, Detroit has allowed 14 points or fewer in four of them. The one outlier was a bizarre game in which quarterback Jared Goff threw five interceptions. Even in that contest, against the Texans, the Lions shut out Houston in the second half. Remarkably, they’ve gone three consecutive games without surrendering any points after halftime.
The Bears, on the other hand, have been inconsistent and unreliable. While Chicago has moments of promise, they lack the firepower and defensive discipline to keep pace with Detroit.
For bettors, there are several ways to approach this game without relying on the erratic Bears. A moneyline parlay involving the Lions feels extremely safe, but the best value lies with Detroit’s team total over 29.5 or taking the Lions -10 now that the hook is gone. While both options are appealing, the Lions’ ability to adjust defensively as the game goes on makes the point spread the stronger play.
Best Bet: Detroit Lions -10