11/7 NFL Preview: Baltimore -6 vs. Cincinnati, Total 53
As we dive into this Ravens/Bengals matchup, it’s all about the stat that lies and the stat that tells the truth. The Ravens have the #1 defense against the run—that stat lies. Why even try to run against Baltimore when their pass defense is so weak? Just ask Gardner Minshew and Jameis Winston, two QBs on struggling teams who came from behind by easily picking apart the Ravens’ defense. Minshew of the Raiders even did it on the road. The stat that tells the truth is Baltimore’s pass defense, which allows 280 passing yards per game—a glaring weakness that makes it hard to lay a big number like -6 against a strong offense like the Bengals.
Tee Higgins will most likely miss this game, but the Bengals have plenty of weapons. When these two met in Cincinnati earlier this season, Bengals head coach Zac Taylor lost the game by taking the ball out of Joe Burrow’s hands. Running the ball three times into the line against the Ravens’ top-ranked run defense—and then relying on a 53-yard field goal instead of letting Burrow get them closer—is a classic Zac Taylor decision. Although there’s a coaching mismatch that might decide the game, this one should stay close.
The Bengals still have issues on defense against competent offenses. Their recent 4-2 run includes wins against bottom-feeders like the Panthers, Giants, Browns (with Watson), and the Raiders. Although the Bengals were blown out by the Eagles, they stayed competitive within this number at Kansas City, against Washington, and against the Ravens. This is a step up in competition, but the Bengals’ passing offense can put up points against Baltimore’s pass defense. A solid player prop bet might be Joe Burrow over 1.5 TD passes.
The best offense in football resides in Baltimore. Lamar Jackson is the MVP leader, complemented perfectly by Derrick Henry, giving the Ravens an impressive run-pass balance. This game is shaping up to be high-scoring, but with the total rising from 51.5 to 53, betting on inflated numbers isn’t wise for the long term. Passing props for the Bengals offer the most value. With backdoor potential and the close nature of their earlier matchup this year, Bengals +6 is the slightest of leans.
Slightest of leans: Bengals +6