11/8 CFB PREVIEW: IOWA -7 vs. UCLA, TOTAL 44.5
The Iowa Hawkeyes (6-3, 4-2) head west to take on an improving UCLA (3-5, 2-4) team Friday night. The line opened at 6.5, dipped to 5, and is now settling at 7. UCLA is coming off two road wins—one against a banged-up Rutgers team (35-32) and a solid win at Nebraska (27-20). Iowa has won three of its last four games, scoring 40+ points in each of those victories. Let’s focus on the total in this game, as the Hawkeyes have gone 8-1 to the over this season.
The Iowa Hawkeyes have scored 38+ points in five games, with another game where they put up 31. Their rushing attack amassed over 300 yards on the ground last weekend against Wisconsin. Iowa has transitioned to Brendan Sullivan at QB, a calming influence who can run, manage the passing game, and, most importantly, avoids turnovers.
UCLA enters with a strong run defense, but even a banged-up Rutgers team managed to put up 32 points against them. UCLA QB Ethan Garbers has thrown six touchdowns with no interceptions in his last 2 games,However, his inconsistency against better defenses is a concern in a matchup like this, which keeps us off the side.
In Iowa games, at least one team has scored 31+ points in eight of nine contests. The books have been off on Iowa totals all season. UCLA’s games have also topped this total in their last two outings and five of the last seven. We’re not looking for a shootout, but in today’s college football, 44.5 is very low. Both teams can score in all three phases, so 44.5 is simply too low for a game that will end in the 50s.
LEAN: IOWA/UCLA OVER 44.5