11/9 CFB PREVIEW: TENNESSEE -24.5 vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE, TOTAL 62
The Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-7, 0-5) head into this matchup with Tennessee (7-1, 4-1) still seeking their first SEC win. This creates value with Mississippi State +24.5 as they travel to Knoxville. The Vols have played only one game against a top-25 opponent and have yet to score more than 28 points in any SEC game. Mississippi State’s only loss by more than 25 points was to an Arkansas team that needed three fourth-quarter touchdowns to pull away. Otherwise, the Bulldogs have stayed within this spread against ranked teams: Georgia (41-31), Texas A&M (34-24), and Texas (35-13). Texas extended the lead with a score in the final minutes. Keep in mind the Texas and Georgia games were on the road.
Tennessee’s early-season success has been bolstered by big numbers against three overmatched teams, where they scored a combined 191 points. Meanwhile, Mississippi State has shown resilience and hasn’t quit in any game this year. Tennessee has struggled to start strong in recent SEC games, scoring only seven points combined in the first half across their last four conference matchups. Last week, the Vols managed just seven points in the first half at home against Kentucky, breaking a three-game streak of first-half shutouts (Alabama, Florida, Arkansas).
Despite being a heavy favorite, Tennessee has not beaten any SEC team by more than 10 points this year, and that trend continues tonight. Look for the Bulldogs to stay within this number tonight at Rocky Top.
LEAN: MISSISSIPPI STATE +24.5