SHOULD ALABAMA MAKE THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF?
Let’s take an unbiased look at whether Alabama should make the College Football Playoff. We will set aside all biases and emotions and focus on the data. For this analysis, we will assume SMU wins the ACC.
We need to identify seven at-large teams. The following six teams are securely in based on their records and rankings: Tennessee, Indiana, Notre Dame, Ohio State, the loser of Georgia/Texas, and the loser of Penn State/Oregon.
This leaves one last spot up for grabs. Four teams are in contention for that spot: Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Miami.
When we examine South Carolina, we see a hot team playing excellent football, including a recent road win at Clemson. However, among the three-loss SEC teams, South Carolina is eliminated first. The Gamecocks lost at Alabama and suffered a 24-point home loss to Ole Miss. This data clearly eliminates South Carolina.
Next, we compare three-loss Alabama to three-loss Ole Miss. Both teams defeated Georgia and South Carolina, but there’s a clear distinction between them. Ole Miss has the worse loss, falling at home to Kentucky (4-8, 1-7). Additionally, Alabama went to LSU at night and crushed the Tigers 42-13, while Ole Miss lost 29-26 when they played in Baton Rouge. Clearly, Alabama is the better choice over Ole Miss.
Now, let’s compare Alabama to Miami. The data here also indicates which team should make it, though interpretations can vary. The fact is that Alabama defeated two top-14 teams (Georgia and South Carolina). However, this becomes subjective due to preseason rankings. Before the season, seven SEC teams were ranked in the top 15, while only two ACC teams held that distinction. This creates a perception that SEC schedules are tougher. The narrative suggests that SEC teams “beat up” on each other, whereas similar outcomes in other conferences lead to teams being unranked or undervalued in the polls.
With the available data, Alabama has two wins over current top-14 teams, while Miami has no wins over top-25 opponents. Miami has only two losses compared to Alabama’s three but boasts a blowout road win over Florida, which is better than Alabama’s win at LSU. Both games were on the road, and Florida beat LSU this year. The question becomes: Do you take a three-loss Alabama team with a perceived tougher schedule over a two-loss Miami team with wins against Duke (3 losses), Louisville (4 losses), and a Virginia Tech team that finished 6-6 after injuries? None of Miami’s wins are against currently ranked teams.
So, what now? People will likely complain if Alabama makes it because of the widespread dislike for the program and skepticism about the data that shows they beat two top-14 teams. For neutral observers, this is a tough decision. After splitting hairs, I would give the edge to Alabama over Miami, though there isn’t strong conviction here.
The best part of this debate is that it’s about the #12 or #13 spot, not the top four. This is a significant improvement over the days of a four-team playoff.