10/18 Friday Night Lights: Oregon -29 vs. Purdue, Total 60
The 2nd-ranked Oregon Ducks travel to Purdue tonight. Oregon is on letdown alert after a thrilling, well-earned 1-point victory over Ohio State. There are plenty of stats we can show you that prove how bad Purdue’s defense is, with my favorite being that in 4 of 5 games against FBS opponents, they allowed 28 points in one half. This is a huge mismatch, which is reflected in the 29-point spread.
There could be a silver lining from last week’s 50-49 OT loss to Illinois for Purdue—they might have found a competent QB in Ryan Browne, who made his first start last week on the road against Illinois. Browne rushed for 117 yards and threw for 297 yards with 3 TDs and no picks, mostly in the second half. Browne brought Purdue back from a 27-3 deficit to force OT, leading Purdue to 536 total yards. This was the same Illinois defense that held Penn State to 21 points on the road. Unlike Purdue’s defense, there is now hope for their offense.
Oregon has won by more than 21 points just once this season, a 49-14 victory at Oregon State. In that game, Oregon led at halftime 22-10, and it was a game the Ducks got up for since it was an in-state rivalry. This Oregon team does not have the super-fast pace of past teams, so where is the value in this game? Betting on bad teams in college football is not the best long-term strategy. Oregon could come out a little slow and ramp it up as the game goes along. If Oregon comes out strong and leads by over 17 at halftime, they’ll likely cover the spread. If Oregon starts sluggish and the first half isn’t a blowout, they could still roll in the second half to cover. Betting Oregon in an unfocused spot like this is not advantageous long-term. The best play might be taking Purdue +17.5 in the first half.
Super Slight Lean: 1st Half Purdue +17.5