10/23 CFB: Jacksonville State -19.5 vs. Middle Tennessee State, Total 64
Jacksonville State (3-2, 2-0) hosts Middle Tennessee State (2-5, 1-2) in a weeknight game that looks to be a mismatch. The Gamecocks have been rolling offensively, putting up 54, 63, and 44 points in their last three outings, and MTSU does not figure to put up much resistance. MTSU has allowed 45+ points in a game four times this year.
The Gamecocks come in with a balanced offense, running for 226 yards per game and throwing for 221 yards per game. This is a great profile for a team that can score often. When you can run so well, you keep rolling up the points even when you’re just working on the clock.
The MTSU defense will not be able to hang with this offense, but they could find some success through the air. They average 250 passing yards per game, which can somewhat offset their porous running game. MTSU QB Nicholas Vattiato could have success against this leaky Jacksonville State pass defense. He was very ill last week during their subpar performance against Kennesaw State, but he should bounce back in this game.
The line movement went from 21.5 down to 19.5, and I couldn’t disagree more with this move. Although MTSU could have some success on offense, this is no guarantee. The best value is that Jacksonville State will be able to score at will. The over is one way to look, and MTSU might have backdoor potential, but the best value in this game is Jacksonville State’s team total over 41.5.
LEAN: Jacksonville State team total over 41.5 (-123)