MLB Preview 4/11 – Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
Thursday’s matchup between the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners comes down to one name: Jacob deGrom. When he’s healthy, deGrom is arguably the most dominant pitcher in baseball. That’s why, from a betting perspective, this game starts and ends with him. The play is simple: back Texas in the First 5 Innings (F5).
In his first two starts of the season, deGrom has delivered exactly what you’d hope for—dominance. Against Tampa Bay and Boston, he’s allowed just one and zero runs respectively in the first five innings. Texas led both games through five innings, and as long as deGrom continues to limit opponents to one run or fewer, this becomes an autoplay. The Rangers have been aggressive with their ace, letting him attack hitters from pitch one without worrying about conserving energy for the later innings. That makes the First 5 market ideal, especially early in the season when pitch counts and workloads are still being monitored.
On the other side, the Mariners continue to struggle offensively. They’ve looked sluggish at the plate to open the year, and deGrom isn’t the type of pitcher a team wants to face when trying to find a rhythm. Seattle will send Bryce Miller to the mound, and while he’s not elite, he’s certainly serviceable. In each of his first two starts, Miller has given up exactly two runs in the first five innings. He’s not a liability, but he’s also not likely to completely shut down a Texas lineup that has been heating up.
The Rangers’ bats have come alive lately, scoring five or more runs in four of their last six games. That gives us confidence they can scratch across a run or two early against Miller. We’re not asking for an offensive explosion—just enough to support a dominant first five from deGrom.
When comparing the two starters and current form, Texas clearly holds the edge. That’s why I’ll be backing the Rangers on the First 5 Innings moneyline at -127. If you want to chase a bit more value, the F5 run line (-0.5) at +105 is also in play. However, considering Miller’s competence and the fact that one swing can shift a tight game, I’m opting for the moneyline for a little more security.
This isn’t just a one-time play. It’s a trend I plan to follow consistently whenever deGrom takes the mound. With his early-game dominance and Texas’ improving offense, the F5 bet offers value without exposing us to the volatility of late-inning bullpens—especially this early in the season.
The Pick: Texas Rangers First 5 Innings ML (-127)
Lean: Texas F5 Run Line -0.5 (+105) for added value.
Back deGrom while he’s healthy, ride the Rangers early, and avoid the bullpen chaos. This is a bet I’ll be making until the numbers or results tell me otherwise.