MLB Preview 4/11 – Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins
As the Washington Nationals hit the road for a 10-game trip, they do so riding some momentum—winners in four of their last five games. Meanwhile, the Miami Marlins return home after a 2-3 road stretch, still struggling to find consistency on both sides of the ball. Thursday’s matchup presents clear value, especially in the First 5 Innings (F5) Moneyline, where we’re backing Washington at -110 behind breakout starter Mitchell Parker.
Parker has been a revelation for the Nationals in his first two big league starts. Despite facing strong offenses in the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Philadelphia Phillies, he’s held them to just one total run over 13 innings pitched. Even more impressively, he’s posted scoreless First 5 innings in both outings. When you find a young pitcher in form like this—especially one flying under the radar—you want to jump on early before the market adjusts.
Miami counters with Edward Cabrera, who is making his first start of the season after being called up. While Cabrera has shown flashes of potential, his control issues have plagued him in the past, and he’s not someone I want to back against a confident lineup. Washington’s offense is coming together at just the right time. Over their last two series (against Arizona and the Dodgers), they’ve scored 4+ runs in each game, including a 2-1 series win over the defending world champion Dodgers.
This is why the First 5 market makes the most sense. The Nationals bullpen still leaves a lot to be desired, and trusting them to hold a lead late isn’t ideal. But with Parker on the mound and facing a struggling Miami offense, the edge lies clearly in the early innings. The Marlins have been one of the league’s worst offensive teams to start the season, and it’s hard to see them doing damage against a pitcher who just stifled two of the league’s better lineups.
Washington should be able to scratch across a couple of early runs against Cabrera, who likely won’t be in top form right out of the gate. Even if it’s a tight, low-scoring game, I trust Parker to keep Miami off the board through five, which makes Nationals F5 ML at -110 a strong play.
To summarize:
Washington is hot and confident.
Mitchell Parker has been lights-out through his first two starts.
Miami’s bats are cold, and they’re rolling out a call-up with control issues.
The Nationals’ bullpen remains a liability—so we avoid the full game and stick with the F5.
The Pick: Washington Nationals First 5 Innings Moneyline (-110)
This is a sharp spot to back a young pitcher before the market catches up. Ride the wave with Parker while the price is still right.