NBA Game 7: Denver at Oklahoma City
The Denver Nuggets head to Oklahoma City for a decisive Game 7, and there’s a lot to unpack here. The Thunder are currently listed as 8-point favorites—down from the 10.5-point spreads we saw in their previous three home games this series. That line movement says a lot, and it’s worth paying attention to. The total is set at 214.5, a major adjustment from Game 1 when it opened at 231. Clearly, the books are reacting to what we’ve seen play out on the court.
One angle that’s been getting a lot of attention is the trend of unders cashing in Game 7s, especially in the later rounds of the NBA playoffs. Historically, the under has hit in 28 of the last 38 such games, which is an eye-popping stat. But personally, I don’t like relying too heavily on trends like that. Each game has its own context, and this one is no different.
Through the first six games of this series, five have gone over this game’s posted total. One of those needed overtime, but still—it’s clear that scoring hasn’t been too much of an issue. So while the books have adjusted both the spread and the total, you have to wonder if there’s any real value left in those numbers. The total has dropped so significantly that betting the under now feels like chasing a number that’s already been milked dry.
OKC has been the better team all year, finishing the regular season strong and carrying that momentum into the playoffs. That said, Denver has looked like a completely different team in this series—arguably the best they’ve looked all season. They’ve battled hard, stayed competitive, and pushed a superior team to the brink. Unfortunately for them, they’ll be without Aaron Gordon, one of their key defensive anchors, which could have a real impact, especially when trying to contain OKC’s dynamic wings.
My goal with this write-up is to give you the info—not to push you in any direction. Personally, I’m staying off the side and total for this game. I don’t see a clear edge with the current lines. However, I did include the Thunder in a moneyline parlay with a Major League Baseball game I love. That brought OKC’s price down to a range I’m more comfortable with, and it gives me a little sweat without going all-in on this unpredictable Game 7.
Worth noting: the public is backing Denver. And the total, which was as low as 210 at one point, has been bought back up to 214.5. That suggests some sharp money might be hitting the over again.
I love Game 7s, and while I’m not making a big play here, I couldn’t resist getting a small piece of the action. Maybe this info helps you build your own bet or parlay.
Lean: OKC to win—but tread lightly!