NBA West Finals Preview: Minnesota vs. Oklahoma City
As we take a look at the Western Conference Finals, it’s important to note that despite the regular-season records, we have the two best teams in the West facing off. Oklahoma City was clearly the best team in the NBA during the regular season, which included being the No. 1 defense overall. The Timberwolves, despite being a 6-seed, had the sixth-best defense in the league. When you break down all the stats, you’ll see that Minnesota was actually No. 4 in efficiency and No. 2 in the West overall.
Looking at the odds for this series, OKC is -355 while the Timberwolves are +288. Based on those odds, the value is on Minnesota — but value betting is about a large sample size over time. At this stage in the playoffs, value doesn’t necessarily win bets. That said, the Timberwolves definitely have a shot in this series, as they arguably have the best player on the floor in Anthony Edwards. His confidence and leadership put this rising superstar over the top. You can analyze all the stats, but what separates superstars is the confidence they exude in crunch time.
As much as I love Edwards, the Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a big-time superstar himself. We could argue for days about who’s better and about the supporting casts on each team. What makes OKC look stronger is that they never took a night off during the regular season. However, there’s a reason I don’t put too much stock in regular-season head-to-head matchups. There are so many nuances — scheduling quirks, roster availability, and momentum — that the Timberwolves’ 2–1 edge over OKC in the regular season doesn’t carry much weight.
The issue with Minnesota’s playoff path so far is that they beat the Lakers — an older team with no defense — and Golden State without Steph Curry. Minnesota took care of business in dominant fashion and did nothing wrong, but they were clearly better than both opponents. Still, they deserve credit for returning to the Western Conference Finals, showing they can make deep playoff runs consistently. Anthony Edwards will need to be clutch this series, more than ever.
SGA, on the other hand, proved his clutch gene in a close game against Denver — exactly what I needed to see. In a seven-game series, the better team almost always wins. Unlike the regular season, you’re not going to blow out teams consistently in the playoffs, especially once they’ve had time to scout and adapt. Although OKC was pushed by a Denver team that entered the series as a sizeable underdog, they still got the job done against a veteran squad that cut down the nets not long ago. Beating a Denver team with a great home court and championship experience was no easy feat.
I’m picking the Thunder to win this series, but laying -355 is simply not a good bet. Game-by-game betting will be the smarter approach in this matchup.
Prediction: OKC in 7