NBA WEST FINALS GAME #1 PREVIEW: MINNESOTA VS. OKLAHOMA CITY
The NBA Western Conference Finals tip off tonight, with Oklahoma City favored by 7 points and the total set at 216.5. As I break down this game from a betting perspective, I don’t see great value—but as we go through the matchup, maybe you’ll find some angles that appeal to you.
The Thunder played just two days ago, and although their Game 7 turned into a blowout, key players still logged significant minutes. At this time of year, with a day off between each game, fatigue and focus typically aren’t concerns. Some might argue that coming off an emotional Game 7 win and jumping right into Game 1 could be a letdown spot for OKC, but I don’t buy into that narrative.
We’re left with the two best teams in the West. A look into the numbers confirms it: OKC finished #1 in overall efficiency across the NBA, while Minnesota was #4 overall and #2 in the Western Conference. It’s also worth noting that OKC being favored by 7 is significantly less than their spread when the Nuggets series began.
By now, everyone knows the stats. This series will come down to execution, smart decisions, and clutch plays in tight moments. As the series progresses, those late-game details will become even more critical.
In Game 1 specifically, I understand why some bettors might be tempted to grab the 7 points with Minnesota. But to be perfectly honest, I don’t see much value in the point spread. If I were to get involved in this game, I’d lean toward the over 216.5 total.
As strong as Minnesota’s defense has looked during the playoffs, it’s important to consider the level of competition. Golden State wasn’t at full strength—especially with no Steph Curry. OKC, on the other hand, has been the most consistent offensive team all year. Even though Denver managed to slow them down at times, six of the seven games in that series went over this number.
Pace will be key in this series, and I expect a faster tempo early on—especially with OKC at home, setting the tone. That should help push the total upward, at least in the first couple of games. Of course, we could see the pace slow down as the series tightens and adjustments are made, but Game 1 should be the best shot for an offensive showcase.
While I won’t be placing a bet on Game 1 personally, my slight lean is to the over 216.5.
SLIGHT LEAN: OKC/WOLVES OVER 216.5