NFL-11/3 REVERSAL OF FORTUNE ON TOTALS

Road Favorites Trending ‘OVER’ This Season

For over a decade, NFL games where the road team is favored have typically leaned toward ‘Under the Total’ outcomes. Whether it’s due to statistical correlation or something else, this pattern has held steady during our time creating the Tipsheet. However, we’re seeing a shift in this trend. So far in the 2024 season, NFL games with road favorites have produced an impressive 28-19-1 OU (60% Overs). This includes a recent three-week stretch with a 28-16-1 OU record (64% Overs) and an even higher 16-4 OU for road favorites of -2 points or more (75% Overs).

Given this trend reversal, if you were considering the UNDER for the following games, it may be worth reconsidering—or even looking at the ‘OVER’: Washington (-3.5) at NY Giants, New Orleans (-7) at Carolina, and Detroit (-3.5) at Green Bay.