11/9(SAT) College Football Preview: BYU -3 vs. Utah
I love it when handicappers overthink plays, taking the “contrarian” side to stand out. That seems to be the case with BYU traveling to Utah as a modest 3-point favorite on Saturday night. This line has moved down from BYU -4.5, which originally provided good value, but some bettors may be overcomplicating this play, just as they did when BYU visited UCF.
Stats shouldn’t be ignored just because it’s a rivalry game. During Utah’s current four-game losing streak, they’ve posted point totals of just 14, 7, 19, and 10. In two home games within that stretch, they managed only 7 points against TCU and 10 against Arizona—two of the weaker defenses in college football. Now, they face a BYU team that has scored 37+ points in 7 of their 8 games. Expecting Utah to keep up offensively against this potent BYU team is a stretch.
Utah’s defense is definitely tough and will play hard, but they’ll likely wear down against BYU’s strong offensive and defensive lines. BYU’s performance against SMU, where they thoroughly dominated in the trenches, showcased their strength on both lines. Even in close games this season, BYU has managed to hold their own, allowing 35 points to Oklahoma State and 28 to Baylor. For Utah, reaching even 17 points in this game would be an achievement.
BYU continues to be undervalued in the market, Don’t overthink it—BYU -3 is a solid play for Saturday night.
Strong Lean: BYU -3
