World Series Game #3: Yankees -146 vs. Dodgers +134, Total 8.5
The Dodgers invade Yankee Stadium looking to take a stranglehold on this series after winning two close games at home. The Dodgers are going with Walker Buehler and his 6.53 road ERA, while the Yankees counter with Clarke Schmidt and his 4.50 home ERA. Just looking at each pitcher’s postseason numbers is very misleading, as both have been in trouble in every outing.
The Yankees decided not to have Schmidt pitch in Game 2 despite his 1.5 road ERA, so we’re left with a pitcher who hasn’t been at his best at home. His goal will be to get through five innings. In both of his starts, Schmidt has battled through 4.2 innings, allowing 2 runs before the bullpen takes over. Buehler was in and out of trouble against the Mets frequently; he was hit hard by the Padres, and even in his outings with good stats, runners were all over the bases.
This game should have plenty of runs, and despite solid bullpens, these teams can still score in high-leverage situations. Let’s avoid the side and go over 8.5 runs in this spot.
LEAN: Dodgers/Yankees over 8.5